Thursday, March 20, 2008

SOHU - Sohu.com - online products and services to consumers and businesses in the People's Republic of China

Sohu.com, Inc. recently reported an excellent quarter and guided higher. Its sponsorship of the 2008 Olympic Games should boost revenues going forward as well. SOHU has posted an average surprise of 5% over the past five quarters. The current year's most accurate estimate shows over 7% potential upside. Over the past two months, this year's earnings estimates have risen 26 cents to $1.74 per share.

Full Analysis

Sohu.com, Inc. (SOHU) provides a range of online products and services to consumers and businesses in the People's Republic of China. Its products and services to businesses include brand advertising and sponsored search.

The company's products and services to users include aggregated content on various topics, including news, entertainment, sports, business and finance, automobile, real estate, information technology, and women.

In early-February, the company said that its fourth-quarter profit more than doubled on strong advertising and game revenue, and said it expects its sponsorship of the Beijing Olympics this summer to help boost 2008 revenues. For the quarter ended Dec. 31, net income rose to $15.1 million, or 39 cents per share, up from $6.1 million, or 16 cents per share, in the prior year quarter, the Beijing-based company said. Analysts expected 33 cents.

Revenue rose 90% to $65.3 million from $34.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2006. Analysts expected revenue of $55.4 million. Advertising and non-advertising revenue both rose substantially in the quarter, helped by a 46% rise in brand advertising revenue and soaring online game revenue.

SOHU also guided higher for its first quarter, saying profits would come in ahead of expectations. The company said it expects earnings per share between 43 cents and 45 cents for the quarter, excluding share-based compensation expenses between eight cents and nine cents per share. Analysts expected 32 cents per share.

Dr. Charles Zhang, Chairman and CEO of Sohu.com, stated, "Once again our team delivered an outstanding quarter with record total revenues and earnings. We are even more pleased to report that we exceeded our raised guidance in each of our revenue categories and earnings for the fourth quarter announced in early December."

SOHU has posted an average surprise of 5% over the past five quarters. The current year's most accurate estimate shows over 7% potential upside. Over the past two months, this year's earnings estimates have risen 26 cents to $1.74 per share. The stock is attractively valued at 21.7x next year's estimates, well below it's long-term growth rate of 42.38%.

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MON - Monsanto - earnings per share of 46 cents surged past the previous year’s 16 cents

Monsanto Co. (MON) delivered a strong fiscal first quarter in early January. Total net sales increased by 36% on a year-over-year basis. First-quarter earnings per share of 46 cents surged past the previous year’s 16 cents and eclipsed the consensus estimate by 31%. MON’s track record of beating analyst estimates is outstanding. The company posted only two earnings misses and one match since March of 2003, while outperforming expectations all the other times.

Full Analysis

Monsanto is an agricultural company that applies innovation and technology to help farmers around the world be successful, produce healthier foods, better animal feeds and more fiber, while also reducing agriculture's impact on the environment.

The company is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results in early April.

In late February, MON announced that it will be able to add between 22 cents to 24 cents a share to its second-quarter earnings as its former chemical business, Solutia, emerges from bankruptcy.

Monsanto’s last quarterly dividend was in the amount of 17.5 cents per share. The dividend will be payable on April 25, 2008, to shareowners of record on April 4, 2008. The dividend yield of 0.6% is outperforming the industry.

In early January, the company stated that there is substantial progress and momentum behind its research-and-development (R&D) pipeline. It is poised to deliver several new blockbuster products to farmers by 2012.

"It's rewarding to see such innovation in the pipeline right now," said Steve Padgette, vice president of biotechnology for Monsanto. "This is the most progress I've seen in my 23 years at the company. Our data demonstrates these cutting-edge innovations can deliver new value to farmers well into the next decade."

The company delivered a strong fiscal first quarter in early January. Total net sales increased by 36% on a year-over-year basis. First-quarter earnings per share of 46 cents surged past the previous year’s 16 cents and eclipsed the consensus estimate by 31%. MON’s track record of beating analyst estimates is outstanding. The company posted only two earnings misses and one match since March of 2003, while outperforming expectations all the other times.

The company noted that its results in the first quarter represent a solid start to the fiscal year and highlight the strong performance of its Latin American business. With the most significant part of its annual business cycle still to come, MON believes these results position the company for another strong fiscal year for its business.

Wall Street remains bullish on MON. Earnings forecasts of $2.81 per share for the year ending August 2008 are above the one month-ago estimates of $2.76. The most accurate estimate is a more bullish $3.00.

The company’s earnings per share are expected to grow by 19% over the next 3 – 5 years, while the industry’s expectation stands at 11%. Growth is also evident in its net profit margin of 12.7%, versus the industry’s average OF 5.3%, and Monsanto’s return on equity (ROE) of 16% signals growth and surpasses the industry average of 15%.

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BKL - The Buckle Inc - an awesome history of surprising and beating analyst estimates by an average 12%

The Buckle Inc. (BKL) is one of the very few retailers that has been able to post any kind of sales growth in light of the currently weakened consumer environment. Beyond that, the company's fourth quarter results were very bullish, with net income growing 31% compared to the same period last year. The company has a great history of beating analyst expectations and estimates continue to accelerate. The Buckles share price is up 50% this year, and that is a seriously impressive growth trajectory.

Full Analysis

The Buckle, Inc. operates retail stores that offer casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women in the United States. The company was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Kearney, Nebraska.

The Buckle is in the incredibly unique position of being one of the few large-scale retail companies that has been able to post solid growth in the incredibly weak consumer environment. The company reported fourth-quarter and full-year results on Mar 11 that were darn-right impressive.

Net income for the fourth quarter increased 31.7% on an 18.3% increase in net sales, growing to $29.1 million from $22.1 million in the same period last year. This produced earnings of 98 cents per share, ahead of both last year's number and analyst expectations. Comparable store net sales the fourth quarter increased 19% from the same period last year.

The company boasts an awesome history of surprising and beating analyst estimates, having done so by an average of five cents, or 12%.

Net income for full-year fiscal 2007 was $75.2 million, up 35% from the previous year's $55.7 million. Comparable store sales for the 52-week period increased 13.2%. During fiscal 2007, the Company purchased and retired 642,500 shares of its outstanding common stock at an average price of $33.58 per share.

Estimates continue to rise, as the one covering analyst continues to upgrade the forecast to reflect the strong quarter and strong outlook. Within the last 30 days, the current-year estimate has tacked on 45 cents and powered ahead to its current projection of $2.80.

As previously mentioned, Buckle shares have been on a powerhouse run in 2008, coming very close to gaining 50% in value in just over two months. That kind of a return in this market from a retail discretionary operator in incredibly impressive.

The trend that shares have been carrying this year is very smooth and fairly aggressive. It has been tested numerous times, but has held valiantly on each occasion. A fairly testy level of resistance resides just above $47, which has also been tested many times, but has yet to be eclipsed. Look for the trend to stay strong and eventually drive shares higher with enough force to bust through the level at $47, and help this company's shares settle in higher ground.

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PCR - Perini Corp - company believes it is on target to set another record for revenues and net income

Perini Corp. is making record profits in construction despite an apparent slowdown in the economy. The company is calling for another record year in 2008 and has the track record to back up the statement. It beat on estimates in every quarter in 2007 by an average of 39.78%. Given the company's bullish projections, PCR is an attractive value pick. Perini's P/E is only 9.19.

Full Analysis

Perini Corporation (PCR) is a construction company that services private clients and public agencies throughout the world. The company specializes in large, complex projects in the hospitality and gaming, sports and entertainment, educational, transportation and healthcare markets.

Perini, a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy), is currently building the Cosmopolitan Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, Nev. and has built government buildings such as the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington, DC.

Despite the perceptions of a slowdown in construction, the company had a breakout 2007, reporting record income and revenues.

On Feb 26, the company reported an increase in net income of 134% for 2007. PCR reported $97.1 million as compared to $41.5 million in 2006.

Revenues for the year also rose 52% over 2006, to $4.6 billion from $3.0 billion in 2006. The increase in revenues was due to more work volume in the company’s hospitality and gaming market in California, Connecticut, Maryland and Nevada.

Results in the fourth quarter were equally as stellar. PCR surprised on earnings by 12 cents, or 15.28%. Net income was $22.9 million as compared to $19.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2006. Earnings per share were 83 cents compared to earnings per share of 72 cents in 2006. Analysts expected 72 cents a share.

"Our building and management services segments have experienced outstanding operating performance from a solid backlog of profitable business in our geographic regions and primary markets in hospitality and gaming, healthcare, education and industrial buildings and U.S. Government services. The prospects for growth in each of these core markets remain very promising," said Robert Band, President and Chief Operating Officer.

Perini gave guidance for 2008 and was still bullish. The company believes it is on target to set another record for revenues and net income. PCR affirmed its initial estimates for 2008 revenues in the range of $5.0 to $5.4 billion and earnings per share estimated in the range of $3.50 to $3.75.

Brokerage analysts responded by raising estimates on the year. Two out of four covering analysts raised in the last 30 days by 18 cents to $3.73 from $3.55, which is at the upper end of the company's guidance range. Consensus estimates for the first quarter have also been moving higher, up two cents to 85 cents from 83 cents in the last 30 days. However, one analyst also lowered for the first quarter.

Analysts have reasons to be bullish. Perini has impressively beaten estimates in all of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 39.78%.

The company is cheap. It has a 2008 P/E of 9.19, well-under the industry average of 19.6. Its price-to-book is 2.52. The company has an excellent five year average return on equity of 21.20%.

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